Research at INTECO

The process of globalization, through either multilateral negotiations at the WTO, trading blocks formation or unilateral liberalization, is one of the most remarkable economic phenomena of the past decades. Its complexity has brought new challenges when it comes to measure its effects and to determine proper trade, finance and environmental governance.

In each of its different research lines, INTECO aims at shading light to the challenges that globalization presents by applying the built up knowledge since the foundation of the group in 2001. The research methodology is performed on theoretical and quantitative grounds, with an on going update of the different research lines in order to provide answers to the new questions arising in the current global context.

Concretely, the contributions of INTECO for understanding the different effects of economic integrations, gravitate around the following two lines:

Commercial, environmental and factor relocation effects of “deep” regional integration agreements.

• Subline 1.1. Trade effects of “deep” trade agreements.

The debate about the effect of the euro on trade has been particularly intense and the available evidence does not seem to be conclusive. The large differences in the results of the estimates are mainly due to various problems arising from the control group considered and the econometric specification used. In this project we will address both issues considering different groups of control countries and minimizing the possible biases derived from endogeneity and the omission of relevant variables.

Another objective is to shed light on the optimal design of trade agreements, maximizing trade creation and minimizing its deviation. The empirical methodology is based on gravity equations. The two main starting points are the analysis of the differential effect of these agreements depending on their legal design (competition policy regime, investment conditions or, if necessary, possible international arbitration) and on the number of partners included in the treaty. These provisions would reduce transaction costs and the risk of such contracts.

• Subline 1.2. Factor relocation: foreign direct investment and migration.

In this subline the first objective will be to consider not only the effects that monetary integration has had on trade, but how the Single Market, with the free movement of capital and the creation of the eurozone, have been able to influence the behavior of foreign investment. However, given the period of time under study, the analysis would be incomplete if the rest of the world were also not considered, so that it can be measured, both from the point of view of goods markets and that of the capital factor, interactions and effects worldwide.

Migration is the third key element in understanding the formation and impact of global markets for goods and services. Given that the OECD is publishing a series of social welfare indicators, another objective of this project is to analyze, using a gravity equation approach, which factors determine that migrants prefer one destination over another. At a time like the current one, the role of immigration and its impact on the European labor market and commerce has not only economic but also social relevance. In addition, in this objective the gender perspective is adopted, given the different behavior in the labor market of men and women.

• Subline 1.3. Environment and “deep” regional integration.

We analyze the relations of substitution or complementarity between the processes of economic integration and environmental quality. In the literature on trade and environment, these causal relationships have given rise to testable hypotheses that imply either the relocation of productive activity (“pollution haven hypothesis) or the degree of environmental regulation requirement (” race-to-the- bottom ”,“ race-to-the-top ”or“ regulatory chill hypothesis ”) or, finally, the environmental quality itself motivated by economic growth or technical progress induced by the process of economic opening (“ Porter hypothesis ”) as described by Copeland and Taylor (2004). In this context, once again broad or “deep” trade agreements include environmental clauses as a tool that reinforces the search for greater environmental quality and the fight against climate change. Thus, the environmental regulations present in more than half of the agreements in force today are intended to avoid “environmental dumping. Knowing the differences in environmental behavior between members of the EU and its determining elements, including social capital, could help to a better design of European environmental policies.

Publications

  • Márquez-Ramos, L. (2022). A Survey of Papers Using Indonesian Firm-Level Data: Research Questions and Insights for Novel Policy-Relevant Research in Economics. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 58 (2): 141-166.
  • Cháfer, C., Gil-Pareja, S. and Llorca-Vivero, R. (2022). Warning: Bilateral trade agreements do not create trade. Bulletin of Economic Research, 74 (1): 135-144.
  • Esteve-Pérez, S., Pieri, F. and Rodríguez, D. (2022). One swallow does not make a summer: Episodes and persistence in high growth. Small Business Economics, 58: 1517-1544.
  • Camarero, M., Montolio, L. and Tamarit, C. (2022). Explaining German outward FDI in the EU: a reassessment using Bayesian Model Averaging and GLM estimators. Empirical Economics, 62 (2): 487-511.
  • Albalate, D., Bel, G.; González-Gómez, F. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2022). Contract renewal in urban water services, incumbent advantage and market concentration. Public Administration Review, 82 (2): 314-324.
  • Albalate, D., Bel, G., González-Gómez, F. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2022). Legislative reforms and market dynamics in the provision of urban water service by private contract operators in Spain. Utilities Policy, 74: 101302.
  • Ríos, A.M. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2021). Measuring environmental performance in the treatment of municipal solid waste: The case of the European Union-28. Ecological Indicators, 123: 107328
  • Nowak-Lehmann D, F., Cardozo, A. R., and Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2021). Migration and asylum flows to Germany: From facts to analysis. Politics and Governance, 9 (4), 210-233.
  • Carril-Caccia, F., Paniagua, J. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2021). Asylum Migration, Borders, and Terrorism in a Structural Gravity Model. Politics and Governance, 9 (4), 146-158.
  • Paniagua, J., Peiró-Palomino, J., and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2021). Asylum migration in OECD countries: In search of lost well-being. Social Indicators Research, 153 (3), 1109-1137.
  • Kruse, H. and Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2021). Transfers in the Gravity Equation. Canadian Journal of Economics, 54 (1): 410-442.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Said, M. and Zaki, C. (2021). Trade Policy and Input Liberalization: The Effect on Egyptian Firms’ Productivity. Review of Development Economics, 25 (3): 1305-1325.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I. and Chelala, S. (2021). Trade Agreements and International Technology Transfer. Review of World Economics, 157: 631-665.
  • Aranguren, M.J., de Lucio, J., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2021). Export markets: substitutes, complements, or independent? Applied Economics Letters, 28 (3): 165-169.
  • Camarero, M., Moliner, S. and Tamarit, C. (2021). Japan’s FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging. Japan and the World Economy, 57: 101058
  • Camarero, M. Moliner, S. and Tamarit, C. (2021). Is there a euro effect in the drivers of US FDI? New evidence using Bayesian model averaging techniques. Review of World Economics, 157: 881-926.
  • Márquez-Ramos, L. (2021). Value-chain activities and individual wages. Critical Perspectives on International Business, 17 (1): 53-71.
  • Camarero, M., Sapena, J. and Tamarit, C. (2021). An Analysis of the Time-Varying Behavior of the Equilibrium Velocity of Money in the Euro Area, in Dufrénot, G. and Matsuki, T. (coords.). Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, 113-146. Springer.
  • Klasen, S., Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Nowak-Lehmann, F. and Bruckner, M. (2021). Does the designation of least developed country status promote exports? Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 30 (2): 157-177.
  • Cerqueira, P., Gaudeul, A., Martínez-Zarzoso, I. and Mueller, S. (2021). Introduction to the INFER-2018 Special Issue on Applied Macroeconomic Policies in Open Economies. Economic Modelling, 94: 430-432.
  • Esteve-Pérez, S. (2021). Previous experience, experimentation and export survival: Evidence from firm-product-destination level data. The World Economy, 44 (9): 2638-2682.
  • Alexa, L., Apetrei, A., and Sapena, J. (2021). The COVID-19 Lockdown Effect on the Intention to Purchase Sustainable Brands. Sustainability, 13 (6): 3241.
  • Esteve-Pérez, S., Gil-Pareja, S., Llorca-Vivero, R. and Martínez-Serrano, J. A. (2020). Euro y comercio: una estimación con flujos comerciales intranacionales, in Solana, G. and Myro, R. (coords.). (coords.). Resúmenes de la III Jornada de Investigación en Internacionalización. Universidad Nebrija, Madrid, 20-21 de mayo.
  • Brodzicki, T., Jurkiewicz, T., Márquez-Ramos, L. and Umiński, S. (2020). Patterns and determinants of the horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade of regions: panel analysis for Spain & Poland. Applied Economics, 52 (14): 1533-1552.
  • Camarero, M., Montolio, L. and Tamarit, C. (2020). Determinants of FDI for Spanish regions: Evidence using stock data. Empirical Economics, 59 (6): 2779–2820.
  • Esteve-Pérez, S., Gil-Pareja, S. and Llorca-Vivero, R. (2020). Does the GATT/WTO promote trade? After all, Rose was right. Review of World Economics, 156 (2): 377–405.
  • Germán-Soto, V., Mendoza-Velazquez, A., Monfort, M. and Ordóñez, J. (2020). Club convergence and inter-regional inequality in Mexico, 1940-2015. Applied Economics, 52 (6): 598-608.
  • Camarero, M., Montolio, L. and Tamarit, C. (2020). Understanding German FDI in Latin America and Asia: A comparison of GLM estimators. Economies, 8 (1): 1-19.
  • Cuadros, A. and Ordóñez, J. (2020). Special Issue: Globalization: recent traits and challenges. The World Economy, 43 (3):529-826.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I. and Chelala, S. (2020). The Impact of Single Windows on Trade. The World Economy, 43 (10): 2549-2573.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Vidovic, M. and Voicu, A. (2020). Production Networks in Europe: A Natural Experiment of the EU Enlargement to the East. Review of International Economics, 28 (5): 1143-1163.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2020). Exporting and Firm Productivity: Evidence for Egypt and Morocco. Middle East Development Journal, 12 (1): 84-100.
  • Peluffo, A., Martínez-Zarzoso, I. and Silva, E. (2020). New Stuff or Better Ways: What Matters to Access International Markets? Journal of Applied Economics, 23(1): 656-678.
  • De Lucio, J., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2020). Dos desplomes de las exportaciones españolas: crisis sanitaria vs. crisis financiera. Cuadernos de Información Económica, 278: 45-52.
  • De Lucio, J., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2020). New exporters benefit more from information spillovers. Applied Economics Letters, 27 (19): 1587-1591.
  • De Lucio, J., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2020). The contribution of granular and fundamental comparative advantage to European Union countries’ export specialization. The World Economy, 43 (11): 2983-3005.
  • Esteve-Pérez, S., Requena-Silvente, F., de Lucio, J., Mínguez, R. and Minondo, A. (2020). Spillovers de exportación y supervivencia exportadora en España. Cuadernos Económicos de ICE, 100: 59-80.
  • Esteve-Pérez, S., Gil-Pareja, S., Llorca-Vivero, R. and Martínez-Serrano, J. A. (2020). EMU and trade: A PPML re-assessment with intra-national trade flows. The World Economy, 43 (10): 2574-2599.
  • Serrano-Domingo, G. ; Cabrer-Borrás, B. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2020). Networks and the location of foreign migrants: evidence for Southern Europe. Investigaciones Regionales – Journal of Regional Research, 47: 97-112.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I. and Phillips, J. (2020). Freedom of the Press, Inequality and Environmental Policy. Environment and Development Economics, 25 (6), 537-570.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2020). Searching for Grouped Patterns of Heterogeneity in the Climate-Migration Link. Weather, Climate and Society, 12 (4): 695-710.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Oberst, C. and Turcu, C. (2020). Introduction: Special Issue on the Environment, Resources and Pollution –New Challenges for Economic Development. Environment and Development Economics, 25 (6): 529-536.
  • Picazo-Tadeo, A.J., González-Gómez, F. and Suárez-Varela, M. (2020). Electoral opportunism and water pricing with incomplete transfer of control rights. Local Government Studies, 46 (6): 1015-1038.
  • Peiró-Palomino, J., Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. and Ríos, V. (2020). Well-being in European regions. Does government quality matter? Papers in Regional Science, 99 (3): 555-582.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I. and Nuñez, T. (2019). Are International Environmental Policies Effective? The Case of the Rotterdam and the Stockholm Conventions. Economic Modelling, 81: 480-502.
  • Márquez-Ramos, L. and Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2019). Exports and Governance: is the Middle East and North Africa region different? The World Economy, 42 (1): 143-174.
  • Camarero, M., Montolio, L. and Tamarit, C. (2019). What drives German Foreign Direct Investment? New evidence using Bayesian statistical techniques. Economic Modelling, 83: 326-345.
  • Del Barrio, T., Camarero, M. and Tamarit, C. (2019). Testing for Periodic Integration with a Changing Mean. Computational Economics, 54:45-75.
  • Camarero, M. and Tamarit, C. (2019). El SEBC y la Política Monetaria Única, in Camarero, M. and Tamarit, C. (coords.). Economía de la Unión Europea, 8ª, Chapter 8: 267-289. Ed., Civitas.
  • Camarero, M. and Tamarit, C. (2019). La Unión Monetaria Europea: antecedentes, situación actual y retos, in Camarero, M. and Tamarit, C.(coords.). Economía de la Unión Europea, 8ª, Chapter 7:235-266. Ed., Civitas.
  • Camarero, M. and Tamarit, C. (2019). La integración económica en la UE: aproximación teórica y perspectiva histórica, in Camarero, M. and Tamarit, C. (coords.) Economía de la Unión Europea, 8ª, Chapter 1: 27-51. Ed., Civitas.
  • Camarero, M., Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Bengochea-Morancho, A. and Morales-Lague, R. (2019). Club Convergence of Sectoral CO2 Emissions in the European Union. Energy Policy, 135: 11019.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Bengochea-Morancho, A. and Morales-Lague, R. (2019). Does Environmental Stringency Foster Innovation and Productivity in OECD Countries? Energy Policy, 134: 110982.
  • Beltrán-Esteve, M. and Picazo-Tadeo A.J. (2019). La política medioambiental, in Camarero, M. and Tamarit, C. (coords.). Economía de la Unión Europea. 8ª Edición. Civitas – Thomson Reuters.
  • Beltrán-Esteve, M., Giménez, V., and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2019). Environmental productivity in the European Union: A global Luenberger-metafrontier approach. Science of The Total Environment, 692: 136-146.
  • Castillo-Giménez, J., Montañés, A. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2019). Performance and convergence in municipal waste treatment in the European Union. Waste Management, 85: 222-231.
  • Castillo-Giménez, J., Montañés, A. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2019). Performance in the treatment of municipal waste: Are European Union member states so different? Science of The Total Environment, 687: 1305-1314.
  • Gil-Pareja, S., Llorca-Vivero, R. and Martínez-Serrano, J. A. (2019). Corruption and international trade: A comprehensive analysis with gravity. Applied Economic Analysis, 27 (79): 3-20.
  • Gil-Pareja S, Llorca-Vivero R. and Martínez-Serrano, J.A. (2019). Reciprocal vs nonreciprocal trade agreements: Which have been best to promote exports? PLoS ONE, 14(2): e0210446.
  • Gil-Pareja, S., Llorca-Vivero, R. and Paniagua, J. (2019). Trade law and trade flows. The World Economy, 43 (3): 1-44.
  • Esteve-Pérez, S. and Sahiti, F. (2019). New Firm Survival in Developing Countries: Evidence from Kosovo. The Developing Economies, 57 (3): 257-273.
  • Castillo-Giménez, J. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2019). La dinámica de especialización sectorial de las exportaciones de las provincias españolas entre 1988 y 2017. Cuadernos de Información Económica, 273: 27–34.
  • Peiró-Palomino, J. (2019). The geography of social capital and innovation in the European Union. Papers in Regional Science, 98 (1): 53-73.
  • Peiró-Palomino, J. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2019). Is social capital green? Cultural features and environmental performance in the European Union. Environmental and Resource Economics, 72 (3): 795–822.
  • De Lucio, J., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2019). Why firms set different export prices? Evidence from Spain. Applied Economics Letters, 26 (3): 250-254.
  • Rodriguez-Crespo, E. and Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2019). The Effect of ITC on Trade: Does Product Complexity Matter? Telematics and Informatics, 41: 182-196.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2019). Effects of Aid on Income through Openness to Trade. Politics and Governance, 7 (2): 1-37.
  • Fiankor, D., Martínez-Zarzoso, I. and Bruemer, B. (2019). Exports and Governance: the Role of Private Voluntary Agrifood Standards. Agricultural Economics, 50 (3): 341-352.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2019). The Euro and the CFA Franc: Evidence of Sectoral Trade Effects. Open Economies Review, 30 (1): 483-504.
  • Abeliansky, A. and Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2019). The relationship between the Chinese ‘going out’ strategy and international trade. Economics E-Journal, 13 (1): 1–18.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I. and H. Kruse (2019). Are Labour Provisions in Free Trade Agreements Improving Labour Conditions? Open Economies Review, 30: 975–1003.
  • Peiró-Palomino, J., Perugini, F. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2019). Well-being and the Great Recession in Spain. Applied Economics Letters, 26 (15): 1 – 6.
  • Idzalika, R., Kneib, T. and Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2019). The Effect of Income on Democracy Revisited. A Flexible Distributional Approach. Empirical Economics, 56: 1207-1230.
  • De Lucio, J., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2018). Los márgenes de exportación de las empresas multiproducto. Papeles de Economía Española, 158: 102-115.
  • Broadstock, D. C., Herrerías, M.J. and Ordóñez, J. (2018). Energy and Environmental Challenges in a Globalized World. The Energy Journal, 39 (1): 1-4.
  • Ghoshray A., Mendoza Y., Monfort M. and Ordoñez J. (2018). Re-assessing causality between energy consumption and economic growth. PLoS ONE, 13 (11): e0205671.
  • Cuestas, J.C. and Ordóñez, J. (2018). Oil prices and unemployment in the UK before and after the crisis: A Bayesian VAR approach. A note. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 510: 200-207.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I. and Oueslati, W. (2018). Do Deep and Comprehensive Regional Trade Agreements help in Reducing Air Pollution? International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 18 (4): 743-777.
  • Esteve-Pérez, S., Peri, F. and Rodríguez. D. (2018). Age and productivity as determinants of firm survival over the industry life cycle. Industry and Innovation, 25 (2): 167-198.
  • De Lucio, J., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2018). The variation of export prices across and within firms. Review of World Economics, 154:327–346.
  • Díaz-Lanchas, J, Llano, C., Minondo, A. and Requena-Silvente, F.(2018). Cities export specialization. Applied Economics Letters, 25 (1): 38-42.
  • Aller, C., Herrerías, M.J. and Ordóñez, J. (2018). The effect of financial development on energy intensity in China. The Energy Journal, 39 (1): 25-38.
  • Márquez-Ramos, L. (2018). The environmental impact of renewables. International Journal of Global Warming, 14 (2):143-158.
  • Camarero, M., Gómez, E. and Tamarit, C. (2018). New evidence on Trade and FDI: how large is the Euro effect? Open Economies Review,  29:451-467.
  • De Lucio, J., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2018). Is Spain experiencing an export miracle? Spanish Economic and Financial Outlook, 7 (4): 53-66.
  • Gil-Pareja, S., Llorca-Vivero, R. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2018). Acuerdos de integración regional: proliferación y profundización, en Martínez-Serrano, J.A. (ed.): El Gobierno de la Globalización: a propósito del septuagésimo aniversario del GATT, Thomson-Civitas, 113-128.
  • Gil Pareja, S., Llorca Vivero, R. and Martínez-Serrano, J. A. (2018). El impacto del GATT/WTO sobre el comercio internacional, en Martínez-Serrano, J.A. (ed): El Gobierno de la Globalización: a propósito del septuagésimo aniversario del GATT, Thomson-Civitas, 101-111.
  • Gil-Pareja, S., Llorca-Vivero, R. and Martínez-Serrano, J.A. (2018). Instituciones y comercio internacional: el impacto de la corrupción. Cuadernos de Información Comercial Española, 96:199-213.
  • Gil-Pareja, S., Llorca-Vivero, R. and Martínez-Serrano, J. A. (2018). Los acuerdos comerciales y el comercio exterior. Papeles de Economía Española, 158: 28-39.
  • Kaplan, L.C., Kohl, T. and Martínez-Zarzoso, I., (2018). Supply-chain Trade and Labor Market Outcomes: The Case of the 2004 European Union Enlargement. Review of International Economics, 26 (2): 481-506.
  • De Lucio, J., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2017). The effect of the Great Recession on exports. Evidence from Spain. Cuadernos Económicos del ICE, 94:73-86.
  • Esteve, V., Prats, M. and De Dios, M.S. (2017). International trade and migrations: A review. Cuadernos Económicos de Información Comercial Española, 94: 137-153.
  • Requena-Silvente, F. (2017). Globalización, integración comercial y bienestar. Información Comercial Española, 896: 19-42.
  • Esteve-Pérez, S., De Lucio, J., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A., and Requena-Silvente, F. (2017). La supervivencia exportadora. Un análisis a nivel de empresa, producto y destino. Cuadernos de Información Económica, 258: 15-34.
  • Esteve-Pérez, S., De Lucio, J., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A., and Requena-Silvente, F. (2017). The link between previous export experience and survival of new export relationships in Spain. Spanish Economic and Financial Outlook, 6 (3):67-71.
  • De Lucio, J., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2017). The granularity of Spanish exports. SERIEs, 8: 225-259.
  • Albalate, D.; Bel G.; González-Gómez, F.J. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2017). Weakening political conections by means of regulatory reform: Evidence from contracting out water services in Spain. Journal of Regulatory Economics, 52: 211 – 235.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2017). The Environmental Impact of Free Trade Agreements. Integration and Trade Journal, 21 (41):158-172.
  • Grunewald, N., Klasen, S., Martinez-Zarzoso, I. and Muris, C. (2017). The Trade-off between Income Inequality and Carbon Dioxide Emissions. Ecological Economics, 142:249-256.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Vidovic, M. and Voicu, A. (2017). Are the Central East European Countries Pollution Havens? The Journal of Environment and Development, 26 (1):25-50
  • Beltrán-Esteve, M. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2017). Assessing environmental performance in the European Union: Eco-innovation versus catching-up? Energy Policy, 104: 240 – 252.
  • De Lucio, J., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A. and Requena-Silvente, F. (2017). Los márgenes del crecimiento de las exportaciones españolas antes y después de la Gran Recesión. Estudios de Economía Aplicada, 35 (1): 43-62.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso,I. and Johannsen, F. (2017). Euro Effects on Trade in Final, Intermediate and Capital Goods. International Journal of Finance and Economics 22 (1), 30-43
  • Gil-Pareja, S., Llorca-Vivero, R. and Martínez-Serrano, J. A. (2017). Las agencias de promoción de las exportaciones: una visión panorámica. Cuadernos de Información Económica, 258: 35-49.
  • Cháfer, C., Gil-Pareja, S. and Llorca-Vivero, R. (2017). El impacto de los acuerdos comerciales: bilateralismo frente a plurilateralismo. Información Comercial Española, 896: 59-72.
  • Gil-Pareja, S. and Llorca-Vivero, R. (2017). El comercio exterior de España y el proceso de la integración europea. Estudios de Economía Aplicada, 35 (1): 63-84.
  • Gil-Pareja, S., Llorca-Vivero, R. and Martínez-Serrano, J. A. (2017). The effect of nonreciprocal preferential trade agreements on benefactors’ exports. Empirical Economics, 52 (1): 143-154.
  • Suárez-Varela, M.; García-Valiñas, M.A., González-Gómez, F. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2017). Ownership and performance in water services revisited: Do private management really outperform public one? Water Resources Management, 31 (8): 2355-2373.
  • Alamá-Sabater, L., Heid, B., Jiménez-Fernández, E. and Márquez-Ramos, L. (2017). FDI in Space Revisited: The Role of Spillovers on Foreign Direct Investments within the European Union. Growth and Change, 48 (3): 390–408.
  • Aller, C., Herrerías, M.J. and Ordóñez, J.(2017). Residential Energy Consumption: A Convergence Analysis across Chinese regions. Energy Economics, 62: 371-381.
  • Márquez-Ramos, L. and Martínez-Gómez, V. (2017). Efectos de las preferencias comerciales en frutas y hortalizas otorgadas a Marruecos por la UE: ¿crean o desvían comercio? Revista Española de Estudios Agrosociales y Pesqueros, 246: 85-115.
  • Artal, A., Pallardo, V., and Requena-Silvente, F. (2016). Examining the impact of visa restrictions on international tourist flows using panel data. Estudios de Economía, 43 (2), 265-279.
  • De Lucio, J., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A., and Requena-Silvente, F. (2016). Networks and the dynamics of export portfolio: Evidence from Mexico. The World Economy, 39 (5): 708-736.
  • Del Saz-Salazar, S., García-Rubio, M.A., González-Gómez, F. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2016). Managing water resources under conditions of scarcity: On consumers’ willingness to pay for improving water supply infrastructure. Water Resources Management, 30:1723-1738.
  • Camarero, M., Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Nowak-Lehmann, F. and Tamarit, C. (2016). Trade Openness and Income: A Tale of Two Regions. The World Economy, 39 (3): 386-408.
  • Alamá-Sabater, L., Heid, B., Jiménez-Fernández. E. and Márquez-Ramos, L. (2016). What drives interdependence of FDI among host countries? The role of geographic proximity and similarity in public debt. Economic Modelling, 58: 466-474.
  • Márquez-Ramos, L. and Martínez-Gómez, V. (2016). On the effect of EU trade preferences: Evidence for monthly exports of fruits and vegetables from Morocco. New Medit: A Mediterranean Journal of Economics, Agriculture and Environment,15 (2): 14-21.
  • Gil-Pareja, S., Llorca-Vivero, R. and Martínez-Serrano, J. A. (2016). Does the degree of development matter in the impact of banking crises on international trade? Review of Development Economics, 21 (3): 829-848
  • Gil-Pareja, S., Llorca-Vivero, R. and Paniagua, J. (2016). El potencial de China. Papeles de Economía Española, 150: 38-50.
  • Barra, A., Galluzzi, A., Tantari, D. Agliari, E. and Requena-Silvente F.  (2016). Assessing the role of migration as trade-facilitator using the statistical mechanics of cooperative systems. Palgrave Communications, 2: 16021.
  • Gil-Pareja, S., Llorca-Vivero, R. and Martínez-Serrano, J. A. (2016). A re-examination of the GATT/WTO effect on trade. Open Economies Review, 27: 561-584.

Previous Publications

Macroeconomic imbalances and governance in integrated economic areas: effects on growth and well-being by social and gender groups

• Subline 2.1. External sustainability: Analysis of the determinants of the current account

We follow Chinn and Ito (2007), who believe that traditional approaches of current account determinants based on savings and investment decisions should be complemented by the role of the stock and credit markets, as well as the evolution of the housing market. Regarding the methodological approach, we use panel cointegration tests and panel estimators applied to EZ countries, although we also consider other methodologies, specifically a Global VAR, following the proposal of Di Mauro and Pesaran (2013) with special emphasis in the countries of the periphery.

• Subline 2.2. Secular stagnation: economic cycles, macroeconomic imbalances and recoveries

The secular stagnation hypothesis focuses on the real interest rate and its equilibrium value. Under normal circumstances, both should be equalized at the point where aggregate investment equals aggregate savings. However, in a period of crisis, it may not be so. The reason is quite simple: while the real type of equilibrium floats freely, the current real type faces a lower limit. On the one hand, the latter is due to the fact that nominal interest rates have a lower zero limit, since, if this were negative, individuals would prefer to keep their savings in cash. On the other hand, the inflation rate or, more precisely, inflation expectations are too low to generate significantly negative real interest rates. The economy would be falling into a liquidity trap due to excess savings (Crafts, 2015). This permanently decreases the growth rate of a country by reducing the potential growth of the product (Teulings and Baldwin, 2014) and leads, among other effects, to permanently higher unemployment rates. While shorter terms of negative real interest rates can be tackled through an expansive monetary policy or a fiscal stimulus on the demand side, long-term challenges are best resolved through appropriate supply reforms.

The objective of this project is to contribute to the existing empirical literature, first, by extending the previous analyses, including the unemployment rate (this time distinguishing by gender) and assessing whether there are threshold effects, that is, analyzing whether the actual level of unemployment has an effect on the response of unemployment and GDP to fiscal shocks. Second, we analyze the monetary policy position and the zero-lower bound (ZLB) to determine the combined effect of fiscal and monetary policy on growth and unemployment. Second, we want to determine how the depth and duration of the crises and the form of the recoveries are related to the previous imbalances of the current account.

Publications

  • Ghoshray, A., Malki, Y, and Ordóñez. J. (2022). On the Long run Dynamics of Income and Wealth Inequality. Empirical Economics, 62:375-408.
  • Balaguer-Coll, M.T., Narbón-Perpiñá, I., Peiró-Palomino, J. and Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2022). Quality of government and economic growth at the municipal level: Evidence from Spain. Journal of Regional Science, 62 (1):96-124.
  • Crespo, J., Peiró-Palomino, J. and Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2022). Does university performance have an economic payoff for their home regions? Evidence for the Spanish provinces. Industry and Innovation, 29 (4): 564-596.
  • Sáez-Fernández, F.J., Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. and Jiménez-Hernández, I. (2021). Performance and risk in the Brazilian banking industry. Heliyon, 7 (3): e06524.
  • Esteve, V. and Prats, M. (2021). Structural breaks and explosive behavior in the long-run: the case of Australian real house prices, 1870-2020. Economics, 15 (1): 72-84.
  • Bessagnet, A., Crespo, J., and Vicente, J. (2021). Unraveling the multi-scalar and evolutionary forces of entrepreneurial ecosystems: A historical event analysis applied to IoT Valley. Technovation, 108:102329.
  • Crespo, J. (2021). Agencies, scales and times of path creation: The case of IoT in Toulouse. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 13 (5): 1527–1545.
  • Bajo-Rubio, O. and Esteve, V. (2021). The current account of the Spanish economy, 1850-2016: Was it optimal? Revista de Historia Económica-Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, 39 (2): 329-354.
  • Cruz-García, P., Dircio, M.C. and Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2021). Financial inclusion and exclusion across Mexican municipalities. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 13 (5): 1404-1406.
  • Peiró-Palomino, J., Picazo-Tadeo, A. and Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2021). Measuring well-being in Colombian departments. The role of geography and demography. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 78: 101072.
  • Budí, V., Alamá, L. and Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2021). Tackling with societal, technological, and climate changes in peripheral regions. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 13 (5): 1404-1406.
  • Camarero, M., Carrión-i-Silvestre, J. LL. and Tamarit, C. (2021). External imbalances from a GVAR perspective. The World Economy, 44 (11): 3202-3245.
  • Camarero, M., G. D’Adamo and C. Tamarit (2021). Differences in wage determination in the Eurozone: A challenge to the resilience of the common currency. Journal of Policy Modeling, 43 (1): 183-199.
  • Camarero, M., Gadea-Rivas, M.D, Gómez-Loscos, A. and Tamarit, C. (2021). Effects of external imbalances on GDP recovery patterns. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 182: 349-362.
  • Narbón-Perpiñá, I., Balaguer-Coll, M.T., Prior, D. and Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2021). Searching for the optimal territorial structure: The case of Spanish provincial councils. Regional Studies, 55 (4), 645-664.
  • De Mingo-López, D.V., Matallín-Sáez, J.C., Soler-Domínguez, A. and Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2021). Looking for sustainable development: Socially responsible mutual funds and the low-carbon economy. Business Strategy and the Environment, 30 (4): 1751-1766.
  • Cuestas, J.C., Monfort, M., and Ordóñez, J. (2021). Measuring the Cost of Covid-19 in Terms of the Rise in the Unemployment Rate: The Case of Spain. Economics, 15 (1): 112-114.
  • Maynou, L., Monfort, M., Morley, B. and Ordóñez, J. (2021). Club convergence in European housing prices: the role of macroeconomic and housing market fundamentals. Economic Modelling, 103: 105595.
  • Cuestas, J.C., Monfort, M. and Ordóñez, J. (2021). The education pillar of the Europe 2020 strategy: a convergence analysis. Empirica, 48: 1113-1129.
  • Monfort, M., Cuestas, J.C. and Ordóñez, J. (2021). Stochastic convergence in real personal disposable income in the EU: a note. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 26 (4): 6390-6394.
  • Camarero, M., Sapena, J. and Tamarit, C. (2020). Modelling Time-Varying parameters in panel data state-space frameworks: An application to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle. Computational Economics, 56: 87-114.
  • Tamarit, C. and Llorca-Vivero, R. (2020). La política fiscal, in García-Delgado, J.L. and Myro, R. (coords.). Lecciones de Economía Española, Chapter 16: 343-360. Ed. Cívitas-Thomson Reuters.
  • Pavan, M. and Barreda-Tarazona, I. (2020). Should I Default on My Mortgage Even if I Can Pay? Experimental Evidence. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 110: 103733.
  • Prior, D., García-Alcober M., Illueca M., and Tortosa-Ausina E. (2020). Risk-taking behavior, earnings quality, and bank performance: A profit frontier approach. Business Research Quarterly, 23 (4): 285–304.
  • Narbón-Perpiñá, I., Balaguer-Coll M.T., Petrovic M. and Tortosa-Ausina E. (2020). Which estimator to measure local governments’ cost efficiency? The case of Spanish municipalities. SERIEs, 11: 51-82.
  • Cuadros, A. and Ordóñez, J. (2020). Globalisation: Recent traits and challenges. World Economy, 3: 530-530.
  • Bajo-Rubio, O., Berke, B. and Esteve, V. (2020). Fiscal policy and the real exchange rate: some evidence from Spain. Empirica, 47 (2):267-280.
  • Arribas,I., Peiró-Palomino, J. and Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2020). Is full banking integration desirable? Journal of Banking and Finance, 112: 105185.
  • Navarro-Ortiz, J., and Sapena, J. (2020). Is external debt sustainable? A probabilistic approach. Economic Modelling, 93: 142-153.
  • Arribas, I., Bensassi, S. and Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2020). Trade Integration in the European Union: Openness, Interconnectedness, and Distance. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 52: 101167.
  • Esteve, V., Navarro-Ibañéz, M. and Prats, M. (2020). Stock prices, dividends, and structural changes in the long-term: the case of U.S. The North American Journal of Economic and Finance, 52: 101126.
  • Lafuente, J.A., Marco, A., Monfort, M. and Ordóñez, J. (2020). Social exclusion and convergence in the EU: an assessment of the Europe 2020 strategy. Sustainability, 12 (5): 1843.
  • Ghoshray, A., Monfort, M., and Ordóñez, J. (2020). Re-examining inequality persistence. Economics E-Journal, 14: 1-9
  • Camarero, M., Peiró-Palomino, J. and Tamarit, C. (2019). Growth in a time of external imbalances. Economic Modeling, 79: 262-275.
  • Tamarit, C. and Llorca-Vivero, R. (2019). La política fiscal, in García-Delgado, J.L. and Myro, R. (coords.). Lecciones de Economía Española, Chapter 16: 361-380. Ed. Cívitas-Thomson Reuters.
  • Camarero, M. and Tamarit, C. (2019). Gobernanza y políticas fiscales en la UEM, in Camarero, M. and Tamarit, C. (coords.). Economía de la Unión Europea, , Chapter 9: 291-320. Ed., Civitas.
  • Thieme, C., Giménez, V., Prior, D., and Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2019). Comparing the performance of national educational systems: inequality vs. achievement? Social Indicators Research, 141 (4): 581-609.
  • Giménez, V., Prieto W., Prior D. and Tortosa-Ausina E. (2019). Evaluation of Efficiency in Colombian Hospitals: An Analysis for the Post-Reform Period. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 65: 20-35.
  • De Mingo-López, D.V., Matallín-Sáez J.C., Soler-Domínguez A. and Tortosa-Ausina E. (2019). Ethical strategy focus and mutual fund management: performance and persistence. Journal of Cleaner Production, 213: 618-633.
  • Matallín-Sáez, J.C., Soler-Domínguez A, and Tortosa-Ausina E. (2019). Does active management add value? New evidence from a quantile regression approach. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 70 (10): 1734-1751.
  • Ayala, L. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2019). Editorial introduction: from Revista de Economía Aplicada to Applied Economic Analysis. Applied Economic Analysis, 27 (79): 1-2.
  • Balaguer-Coll, M.T., Narbón-Perpiñá I. and Tortosa-Ausina E. (2019). Evaluating local government performance in times of crisis. Local Government Studies, 45 (1): 64-100.
  • De Mingo-López, D.V., Matallín-Sáez J.C., Soler-Domínguez A. and Tortosa-Ausina E. (2019). Does socially responsible mutual fund performance vary over the business cycle? New insights on the effect of idiosincratic SR features. Business Ethics: A European Review, 28 (1): 71-98.
  • Ordóñez, J., Monfort, M. and Cuestas, J.C. (2019). Oil prices, unemployment and the financial crisis in oil-importing countries: The case of Spain. Energy, 181 (3): 625-634.
  • Gómez-Vega, M. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2019). Ranking world tourist destinations with a composite indicator of competitiveness: To weigh or not to weigh? Tourism Management, 72: 281-291.
  • Jiménez-Hernández, I., Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. and Sáez-Fernández, F.J. (2019). Are LAC cooperative and commercial banks so different in their management of non-performing loans? Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, 90 (3):419-440.
  • Congregado, E., Esteve, V. and Golpe, A. (2019). On the Substitutability between Paid-employment and Self-employment: Evidence from the Period 1969-2014 in the United States. Sustainability, 11 (2): 507.
  • Márquez-Ramos, L. and Mourelle, E. (2019). Education and economic growth: an empirical analysis of nonlinearities. Applied Economic Analysis, 27 (79): 21-45.
  • Peiró-Palomino, J. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. (2018). OECD: One or many? Ranking countries with a composite well-being indicator. Social Indicators Research, 139 (3): 847-869.
  • Tamarit, C. (2018). La Unión Europea y la crisis del euro hasta la actualidad, in Nasarre, E., Aldecoa, F. and Benedito, M.A. (coords.). Europa como tarea. A los sesenta años de los Tratados de Roma y a los setenta del Congreso de Europa de La Haya, 157-172. Ed. Marcial Pons.
  • Monfort, M., Ordóñez, J., and Sala, H. (2018). Inequality and unemployment patterns in Europe: Does integration lead to (real) convergence? Open Economies Review, 29: 703-724.
  • Esteve, V. and Tamarit, C. (2018). Public Debt and Economic Growth in Spain, 1851-2013. Cliometrica, 12 (2): 219-249.
  • Cuestas, J.C. and Ordóñez, J. (2018). Fiscal consolidation in Europe: has it worked? Applied Economics Letters, 25 (16): 1179-1182.
  • Giménez, V., Prior, D. and Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2018). The impact of efficiency on the economic growth of emerging economies: The case of Colombia. Ensayos sobre Política Económica, 36 (85): 86-100.
  • Picazo-Tadeo, A.J., González-Gómez, F. and Guardiola, J. (2017). Does the crowd matter in refereeing decisions? Evidence from Spanish soccer.  International Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 15 (5):447-459.
  • Boix, R. and Peiró-Palomino, J. (2017). Industrias de servicios creativos y productividad del trabajo en las regiones de la Unión Europea. La Economía de las Actividades Creativas: Una Perspectiva desde España y México: 357-380.
  • Esteve, V., Navarro-Ibáñez, M. and Prats, M. (2017). The gold standard and the euro: a reflection from a Reading of A Treaty on Monetary Reform. Cuadernos de Economía, 40 (114): 247-255.
  • Del Barrio, T., Camarero, M. and Tamarit, C. (2017). Testing for Periodic Integration with a Changing Mean. Computational Economics, 54: 45-75.
  • Paniagua, J., Sapena, J. and Tamarit, C. (2017). Fiscal sustainability of peripheral EMU countries: A continued fiscal commitment? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 50: 85-97.
  • Tamarit, C. (2016). Paradojas de la Gobernanza Económica, in Alfredo García Prats, F. (coord.). Gobernanza Económica e Integración Fiscal en la Unión Europea, Ed. Tirant lo Blanch, Valencia.
  • Camarero, M. (2016). El papel de la Política Monetaria durante la crisis, in Alfredo García-Prats, F. (coord). Gobernanza Económica e Integración Fiscal en la Unión Europea, Ed. Tirant lo Blanc, Valencia.
  • Peiró-Palomino, J. and Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2016). Social capital and income convergence in the European regions, in Westlund. H., Larsson, J. (eds.). Hándbol of Social Capital and Regional Development: 321-358, chapter 12, pages 321-356, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Peiró-Palomino, J. (2016). European regional convergence revisited: the role of intangible assets. The Annals of Regional Science, 57 (1): 165-194.
  • Peiró-Palomino, J. (2016). Social capital and economic growth in Europe: nonlinear trends and heterogeneous regional effects. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 78 (5): 717-751.
  • Ghoshray, A.,Ordóñez, J. and Sala, H. (2016). Euro, crisis and unemployment: youth patterns, youth policies? Economic Modelling, 58: 442-453.
  • Morley, B., Ordóñez, J. and Wang, R. (2016). The Taylor Rule, Wealth Effects and the Exchange Rate. Review of International Economics, 24 (2): 282-301.
  • Márquez-Ramos, L (2016). Regionalism, subnational variation and gravity: A four-country tale. Journal of Regional Research, 35: 7-36.
  • Gil-Pareja, S., Llorca-Vivero, R. and Picazo-Tadeo, A.J (2016). Crecimiento y productividad en la economía valenciana. Papeles de Economía Española, 148: 202-215.
  • Esteve, V. and Tamarit, C. (2016). Deuda pública y crecimiento económico en España, 1851-2013. Cuadernos de Información Económica,  253: 27-40.
  • Esteve, V. and Tamarit, C. (2016). The dynamics of public debt and economic growth in Spain. Spanish Economic and Financial Outlook, 5 (4): 63-72.
  • Bajo-Rubio, O., B. Berke and V. Esteve (2016). The Effects of Competitiveness on Trade Balance: The Case of Southern Europe. Economics E-Journal, 10 (2016-30): 1-27.
  • Camarero, M., D’Adamo, G. and Tamarit, C. (2016). The role of institutions in explaining wage determination in the Eurozone: A panel cointegration approach. International Labour Review, 155 (1): 25-56.

Previous Publications